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Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, order imbalance, volatility, and bid-ask spreads exhibit similar patterns, but do not explain the return patterns. We also show that short-term return reversal is driven by temporary liquidity imbalances lasting less than an hour and bid-ask bounce. Timing trades can reduce execution costs by the equivalent of the effective spread.

This paper presents striking evidence that option trading changes the prices of underlying stocks. In particular, we show that on expiration dates the closing prices of stocks with listed options cluster at option strike prices. On each expiration date, the returns of optionable stocks are altered by an average of at least 16.5 basis points, which translates into aggregate market capitalization shifts on the order of $9 billion. We provide evidence that hedge re-balancing by option market-makers and stock price manipulation by firm proprietary traders contribute to the clustering.

We study performance and competition among high-frequency traders (HFTs). We construct measures of latency and find that differences in relative latency account for large differences in HFTs’ trading performance. HFTs that improve their latency rank due to colocation upgrades see improved trading performance. The stronger performance associated with speed comes through both the short-lived information channel and the risk management channel, and speed is useful for various strategies including market making and cross-market arbitrage. We find empirical support for many predictions regarding relative latency competition.

Over nearly a quarter of a century, ETFs have become one of the most popular passive investment vehicles among retail and professional investors due to their low transaction costs and high liquidity. By the end of 2016, the market share of ETFs topped over 10% of the total market capitalization traded on US exchanges, while representing more than 30% of the overall trading volume. ETFs revolutionized the asset management industry by taking market share from traditional investment vehicles such as mutual funds and index futures. Because ETFs rely on arbitrage activity to synchronize their prices with the prices of the underlying portfolio, trading activity at the ETF level translates to trading of the underlying securities. Researchers found that while ETFs enhance price discovery, they also inject non-fundamental volatility to market prices and affect the correlation structure of returns. Furthermore, ETFs impact the liquidity of the underlying portfolios, especially during events of market stress.

Poverty and income inequality remain a stubborn challenge in Asia and the Pacific despite the region’s rapid economic expansion in previous decades, which lifted millions out of poverty. Financial inclusion is often considered as a critical element that makes growth inclusive as access to finance can enable economic agents to make longer-term consumption and investment decisions, participate in productive activities, and cope with unexpected short-term shocks. Understanding the link between financial inclusion, poverty, and income inequality at the country level will help policymakers design and implement programs that will broaden access to financial services, leading to reduction of poverty incidence and income equality. This paper extends the existing literature on financial inclusion by focusing on developing Asian economies. We construct our own financial inclusion indicator to assess various macroeconomic and country-specific factors affecting the degree of financial inclusion for 37 selected developing Asian economies. We also test the impact of financial inclusion, along with other control variables, on poverty and income inequality. Our results show that per capita income, rule of law, and demographic characteristics significantly affect financial inclusion in developing Asia. Furthermore, we find that financial inclusion significantly reduces poverty; and there is also evidence that it lowers income inequality. Our findings suggest that the provisions for young and old-age populations, e.g., retirement pensions; and stronger rule of law, including enforcement of financial contracts and financial regulatory oversight, will broaden financial inclusion, thereby contributing to poverty reduction and lower income inequality.

We propose that investment strategies should be evaluated based on their net-of-trading-cost return for each level of risk, which we term the "implementable efficient frontier." While numerous studies use machine learning return forecasts to generate portfolios, their agnosticism toward trading costs leads to excessive reliance on fleeting small-scale characteristics, resulting in poor net returns. We develop a framework that produces a superior frontier by integrating trading-cost-aware portfolio optimization with machine learning. The superior net-of-cost performance is achieved by learning directly about portfolio weights using an economic objective. Further, our model gives rise to a new measure of "economic feature importance."

The shape of the VIX term structure conveys information about the price of variance risk rather than expected changes in the VIX, a rejection of the expectations hypothesis. A single principal component, Slope, summarizes nearly all this information, predicting the excess returns of S&P 500 variance swaps, VIX futures, and S&P 500 straddles for all maturities and to the exclusion of the rest of the term structure. Slope's predictability is incremental to other proxies for the conditional variance risk premia, is economically significant, and can only partially be explained by variations in observable risk measures.

Theory on the pricing of financial assets can be traced back to Bernoulli's famous St. Petersburg paper of 1738. Since then, research into asset pricing and derivative valuation has been influenced by a couple of dozen major contributions published during the twentieth century. These seminal works have underpinned the key ideas of mean-variance optimisation, equilibrium analysis and no-arbitrage arguments. This paper presents a historical review of these important contributions to finance.

Convex optimization solutions tend to be unstable, to the point of entirely offsetting the benefits of optimization. For example, in the context of financial applications, it is known that portfolios optimized in sample often underperform the naïve (equal weights) allocation out of sample.This instability can be traced back to two sources: (1) noise in the input variables; and (2) signal structure that magnifies the estimation errors in the input variables.There is abundant literature discussing noise induced instability. In contrast, signal induced instability is often ignored or misunderstood.We introduce a new optimization method that is robust to signal induced instability.For additional details, see the full paper at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3469961.

Deviations from put-call parity contain information about future returns. Using the difference in implied volatility between pairs of call and put options to measure these deviations we find that stocks with relatively expensive calls outperform stocks with relatively expensive puts by 51 basis points per week. We find both positive abnormal performance in stocks with relatively expensive calls and negative abnormal performance in stocks with relatively expensive puts, a result which cannot be explained by short sales constraints. Using rebate rates from the stock lending market, we confirm directly that our findings are not driven by stocks that are hard to borrow. Options with more leverage generate greater predictability. Controlling for size, deviations from put-call parity are more likely to occur in options with underlying stocks that face more information risk. Deviations from put-call parity also tend to predict returns to a larger extent in firms that face a more asymmetric information environment, and in firms with high residual analyst coverage. We also find that the degree of predictability decreases over the sample period. Our results are consistent with mispricing during the earlier years of the study, with a gradual reduction of the mispricing over time.

The intersection of finance and technology, known as fintech, has resulted in the dramatic growth of innovations and has changed the entire financial landscape. While fintech has a critical role to play in democratizing credit access to the unbanked and thin-file consumers around the globe, those consumers who are currently well served also turn to fintech for faster services and greater transparency. Fintech, particularly the blockchain, has the potential to be disruptive to financial systems and intermediation. Our aim in this paper is to provide a comprehensive fintech literature survey with relevant research studies and policy discussion around the various aspects of fintech. The topics include marketplace and peer-to-peer lending, credit scoring, alternative data, distributed ledger technologies, blockchain, smart contracts, cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings, central bank digital currency, robo-advising, quantitative investment and trading strategies, cybersecurity, identity theft, cloud computing, use of big data and artificial intelligence and machine learning, identity and fraud detection, anti-money laundering, Know Your Customers, natural language processing, regtech, insuretech, sandboxes, and fintech regulations.

Valuing banks, insurance companies and investment banks has always been difficult, but the market crisis of 2008 elevated the concern to the top of the list of valuation issues. The problems with valuing financial service firm stem from two key characteristics. The first is that the cash flows to a financial service firm cannot be easily estimated, since items like capital expenditures, working capital and debt are not clearly defined. The second is that most financial service firms operate under a regulatory framework that governs how they are capitalized, where they invest, how much they can pay in dividends and how fast they can grow. Changes in the regulatory environment can create large shifts in value. In this paper, we confront both factors. We argue that financial service firms are best valued using equity valuation models, rather than enterprise valuation models, and with actual or potential dividends, rather than free cash flow to equity. The two key numbers that drive value are the cost of equity, which will be a function of the risk that emanates from the firm’s investments, and the return on equity, which is determined both by the company’s business choices as well as regulatory restrictions. We also look at how relative valuation can be adapted, when used to value financial service firms.

This paper explores the economic and legal causes and consequences of the 2007-2008 credit crisis. We provide basic descriptive statistics and institutional details on the mortgage origination process, mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). We examine a number of aspects of these markets, including the identity of MBS and CDO sponsors, CDO trustees, CDO liquidations, MBS insured and registered amounts, the evolution of MBS tranche structure over time, mortgage originations, underwriting quality of mortgage originations, and writedowns of the commercial and investment banks. We discuss the financial difficulties faced by investment and commercial banks. In light of this discussion, the paper then addresses questions as to whether these difficulties might have been foreseen, and some of the main legal issues that will play an important role in the extensive litigation (summarized in the paper) that is underway, including the Rule 10b-5 class-action lawsuits that have already been filed against the banks, pending ERISA litigation, the causes-of-action available to MBS and CDO purchasers, and litigation against the rating agencies. In the course of this discussion, the paper discusses three principles that will likely prove central in the resolution of the securities class-action litigation: (1) "no fraud by hindsight"; (2) "truth on the market"; and (3) "loss causation."

We examine whether an increase in ETF ownership is accompanied by a decline in pricing efficiency for the underlying component securities. Our tests show an increase in ETF ownership is associated with: (1) higher trading costs (bid-ask spreads and market liquidity); (2) an increase in “stock return synchronicity”; (3) a decline in “future earnings response coefficients”; and (4) a decline in the number of analysts covering the firm. Collectively, our findings support the view that increased ETF ownership can lead to higher trading costs and lower benefits from information acquisition. This combination results in less informative security prices for the underlying firms.

SEC and CFTC reports estimate that High Frequency strategies are responsible for about 60% of all transactions on U.S. shares. In Europe, this percentage is around 40% and growing. High Frequency strategies are those characterized by a brief holding period, which can range from a split second to a few hours. This enables traders to place numerous independent bets per day on an instrument or portfolio, profiting from the multiplicative effect postulated by the Fundamental Law of Active Management. The goal is to exploit inefficiencies derived from the market’s microstructure (rigidities, agents’ idiosyncrasies, asymmetric information, etc.). The generalization of electronic markets and ubiquitous automation of financial transactions has rendered many established models and theories obsolete. The objective of this work is to present a new scientific framework for the study of some of the most relevant questions concerning High Frequency.

I assemble an annual time series of bid-ask spreads on Dow Jones stocks from 1900-2000, along with an annual estimate of the weighted-average commission rate for trading NYSE stocks since 1925. Spreads are cyclical, especially during periods of market turmoil. The sum of half-spreads and one-way commissions, multiplied by annual turnover, is an estimate of the annual proportional cost of aggregate equity trading. This cost drives a wedge between aggregate gross equity returns and net equity returns. This wedge can account for only a small part of the observed equity premium, but all else equal the gross equity premium is perhaps 1% lower today than it was early in the 1900's. Finally, I present evidence that the transaction cost measures that also proxy for liquidity - spreads and turnover - predict stock returns one year or more ahead. High spreads predict high stock returns; high turnover predicts low stock returns. These liquidity variables dominate traditional predictor variables, such as the dividend yield. The evidence suggests that time-series variation in aggregate liquidity is an important determinant of conditional expected stock market returns.

We study brokerage platform outages to examine the impact of retail investors on financial markets. We contrast outages at Robinhood, which caters to inexperienced investors, with outages at traditional retail brokers. For stocks with high retail interest, we find that negative shocks to Robinhood investor participation are associated with reduced market order imbalances, increased market liquidity, and lower return volatility, whereas the opposite relations hold following outages at traditional retail brokerages. The findings suggest that herding by inexperienced investors can create inventory risks that harm liquidity in stocks with high retail interest, while other retail trading improves market quality.

An originate-to-distribute (OTD) model of lending, where the originator of a loan sells it to various third parties, was a popular method of mortgage lending before the onset of the subprime mortgage crisis. We show that banks with high involvement in the OTD market during the pre-crisis period originated excessively poor quality mortgages. This result is not explained away by differences in observable borrower quality, geographical location of the property or the cost of capital of high and low OTD banks. Instead, our evidence supports the view that the originating banks did not expend resources in screening their borrowers. The effect of OTD lending on poor mortgage quality is stronger for capital-constrained banks. Overall, we provide evidence that lack of screening incentives coupled with leverage induced risk-taking behavior significantly contributed to the current sub-prime mortgage crisis.

This objective of this paper is to develop a generic, yet practical framework for construction of Markov models for commodity derivatives. We aim for sufficient richness to permit applications to a broad variety of commodity markets, including those that are characterized by seasonality and by spikes in the spot process. In the first, largely theoretical, part of the paper we derive a series of useful results about low-dimensional Markov representation of the dynamics of an entire term structure of futures prices. Extending previous results in the literature, we cover jump-diffusive models with stochastic volatility as well as several classes of regime-switch models. To demonstrate the process of building models for a specific commodity market, the second part of the paper applies a selection of our theoretical results to the exercise of constructing and calibrating derivatives trading models for USD natural gas. Special attention is paid to the incorporation of empirical seasonality effects in futures prices, in implied volatilities and their smile, and in correlations between futures contracts of different maturities. European option pricing in our proposed gas model is closed-form and of the same complexity as the Black-Scholes formula.

This paper compares the eleven different versions of computing return on assets that can be found in current business textbooks. To illustrate the practical differences between the different versions, each version of ROA is calculated for eight slightly different example firms. The results are then compared and analyzed. Pros and cons are then discussed for each version of ROA. A practical ROA taxonomy is proposed to organize the several different versions and to improve comparability.

In this paper we study the univariate return properties of a large variety of commodity futures. Our analysis shows that the volatility of commodity futures is comparable to that of US large cap stocks. Yet, with the exception of energy, a consistently positive risk premium is lacking in commodity futures. We also find that for many commodities, futures returns and volatility can vary considerably over different phases of the business cycle, under different monetary conditions as well as with the shape of the futures curve. Skewness in commodity futures returns is largely insignificant, whereas kurtosis is significantly positive and comparable to that of US large cap stocks. In almost all commodities we find significant degrees of autocorrelation, which affects the properties of longer horizon returns.

The new NYSE rules for corporate governance require the audit committee to discuss and review the firm's risk assessment and hedging strategies. They also put additional requirements for the composition and the financial knowledge of the directors sitting on the board and on the audit committee. In this paper, we investigate whether these new rules as well as those set by the Sarbanes Oxley act lead to hedging decisions that are of more benefit to shareholders. We construct a novel hand collected dataset that allows us to explore multiple definitions for the financially knowledgeable term present in this new regulation.We find that the requirements on the audit committee size and independence are beneficial to shareholders, although maintaining a majority of unrelated directors in the board and a director with an accounting background on the audit committee may not be necessary. Interestingly, financially educated directors seem to encourage corporate hedging while financially active directors and those with an accounting background play no active role in such policy. This evidence combined with the positive relation we report between hedging and the firm's performance suggests that shareholders are better off with financially educated directors on their boards and audit committees. Our empirical findings also show that having directors with a university education on the board is an important determinant of the hedging level. Indeed, our measure of risk management is found to be an increasing function of the percentage of directors holding a diploma superior to a bachelor degree. This result is the first direct evidence concerning the importance of university education for the board of directors.

We test and confirm the hypothesis that individual investors are net buyers of attention-grabbing stocks, e.g., stocks in the news, stocks experiencing high abnormal trading volume, and stocks with extreme one day returns. Attention-driven buying results from the difficulty that investors have searching the thousands of stocks they can potentially buy. Individual investors don't face the same search problem when selling because they tend to sell only stocks they already own. We hypothesize that many investors only consider purchasing stocks that have first caught their attention. Thus, preferences determine choices after attention has determined the choice set.

The battle between proponents of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and champions of behavioral finance has never been more pitched, and little consensus exists as to which side is winning or the implications for investment management and consulting. In this article, I review the case for and against the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and describe a new framework - the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - in which the traditional models of modern financial economics can coexist alongside behavioral models in an intellectually consistent manner. Based on evolutionary principles, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis implies that the degree of market efficiency is related to environmental factors characterizing market ecology such as the number of competitors in the market, the magnitude of profit opportunities available, and the adaptability of the market participants. Many of the examples that behavioralists cite as violations of rationality that are inconsistent with market efficiency - loss aversion, overconfidence, overreaction, mental accounting, and other behavioral biases - are, in fact, consistent with an evolutionary model of individuals adapting to a changing environment via simple heuristics. Despite the qualitative nature of this new paradigm, I show that the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis yields a number of surprisingly concrete applications for both investment managers and consultants.

A substantial literature investigates conditional conservatism, defined as asymmetric accounting recognition of economic shocks (“news”), and how it depends on various market, political and institutional variables. Studies typically assume the Basu (1997) asymmetric timeliness coefficient (the incremental slope on negative returns in a piecewise-linear regression of accounting income on stock returns) is a valid conditional conservatism measure. We analyze the measure’s validity, in the context of a model with accounting income incorporating different types of information with different lags, and with noise. We demonstrate that the asymmetric timeliness coefficient varies with firm characteristics affecting their information environments, such as the length of the firm’s operating and investment cycles, and its degree of diversification. We particularly examine one characteristic, the extent to which “unbooked” information (such as revised expectations about rents and growth options) is independent of other information, and discuss the conditions under which a proxy for this characteristic is the market-to-book ratio. We also conclude that much criticism of the Basu regression misconstrues researchers’ objectives.